Sulfur is tight.Balanced sulphur market conditions in the short term, shifting to increasing potential surpluses after 2012.
World phosphate rock capacity is projected to increase by an overall 20%, from 190 Mt in 2009 to 228 Mt in 2014. This growth in potential production would result from a combination of expansions at existing operations, new mines opened by current producers, and new capacity added by emerging suppliers. On a regional basis, future rock supply is projected to increase in almost all regions although additions would mainly be in Africa,West Asia and East Asia. Productive capacity is projected to decline in North America. New supply from emerging suppliers would add close to 17 Mt, of which more than half would be available for exports.
However, most new suppliers have plans for downstream processing in the longer term. If all these projects proceed as planned, there will be no shortage of phosphate concentrates in the medium term.Limited addition of “merchant grade” phosphoric acid supply in the near term Global phosphoric acid capacity is forecast to increase by a net 9.2 Mt to 55.5 Mt P2O5 between 2009 and 2014. About 90% of this net expansion would be earmarked for domestic markets and the rest sold under contracted offtake agreements. The main additions to domestic capacity would be in China, Morocco and Saudi Arabia. New merchant capacity is expected to come on stream from stand-alone units in Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia.
The net addition to merchant grade acid capacity is estimated at 1.6 Mt P2O5, of which 1.5 Mt would come from four large stand-alone units. No new tonnage of non-committed merchant grade acid capacity is expected to be available before 2014.
Relatively balanced market conditions for phosphoric acid-based products is foresseen through 2014.