Peak phosphate

In "The history of phosphorus: Global food security and food for thought" Dana Cordell et al (Global Environmental Change, 19, 2009, 192-305) concluded that humanity became addicted to phosphate rock. Modern agriculture is relying in a non renewable resource. We need physical and institutional changes to avoid compromising severelly our future, because future phosphorus scarcity is not beeing addressed in a long term and equitable phosphate rock management point of view.

Honouring John Sinden

John Sinden is a british phosphate processing engineer and has 46 years of experience in the fertilizer industry. He began his work as an industrial chemist at Fisons Fertilizer (currently Yara Fertilizer) and later became a production manager at Plymouth. After that, he worked in the Central Technical Services (CTS) Unit, working directly for the production director. He was responsible for the process trouble shooting in all the granulation plants (14), super phosphate plants (3) and bulk blending units (20), he was also involved in all the other process plants - sulphuric acid and ammonium nitrate.
After the CTS unit was incorporated in the Process and Licensing Unit, he also started up six granulation units and two MAP/DAP plants in Brazil, Uruguay and Turkey. During this period he was responsible for the basic process design and/or feasibility studies for granulation projects in Turkey, Cyprus, Poland and Yugoslavia.
As Technical Manager of Manah S.A., he was responsible for all aspects of process development and control, project and product research and development.
John Sinden has carried out many process audits and due diligence studies on ROP SSP/TSP, G/TSP, NPK and DAP/MAP/AP and Granulation units in Brazil, Uruguay, South Africa, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Egypt, Portugal, Austria, Lithuania, Morroco, Indonesia, India, Mexico and USA.
He is a Senior Partner of JSA Ltda, Brazil and is a world-renowned consultant engineer and is considered a leading phosphate rock to fertilizers specialist.
In 2010John was awarded the Pierre Becker memorial award by IFA for his services to the fertilizer industry.
His pupils are kindly called “Sinden´s Boys” in Brazilian fertilizers companies.

Long term price prediction for Bayóvar rock

Average long-term forecast pricing for Sandpiper Product FOB Namibia blended across the three target market segments is expected to result in an approximate 12% discount (based on both quality and freight differentials) to the price of rock phosphate from the Bayovar mine FOB Peru. The current price of Bayovar rock phosphate is approximately US$145 - 150 / tonne, FOB Peru. 2 CRU’s long-term real price forecast for Bayovar rock phosphate is approximately US$114 / tonne, FOB Peru (stated in March 2012 prices). souce: http://www.minemakers.com.au/downloads/120418FINALSandpiperPositiveFeasibilityStudyResultsandResourceUpgradeFINAL.pdf

India 2012 Q4 phosphoric acid market

India phosacid Q4 price settles at $855/mt P2O5 CFR, down $30/mt As reported in the October 9 Market Alert, OCP has agreed the Q4 price for Moroccan phosphoric acid supply contracts with its joint venture partners at $855/mt P2O5 CFR with 30 days credit, down $30/mt on the Q3 price.
It is understood that the Moroccan supplier will ship around 80-90,000 mt/month P2O5 during the fourth quarter, below the normal allocation of around 100-110,000 mt/month P2O5.
The new price equates to a cash cost price for indigenous DAP in the mid $590s/mt CFR against ammonia pricing at over $700/mt CFR,which is above the established benchmark for imported DAP at $580/mt CFR.

Phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizers prices in 2013

By Magnus Berge Ethiopia's tender award business totalling 250,000 mt DAP for November-February 2013 shipment shows clearly downward pressure on prices for Q4. Estimated netbacks on sales based on a total costpackage for delivering the product at Djibouti in the low-to-mid $60s/mt from Ras Al-Khair, Saudi Arabia are in the high $530s/mt to the mid $550s/mt FOB Ras Al-Khair against delivered prices at $602- 617.30/mt CFRLO. The low end of the price range reflects shipment into the first quarter of 2013 while the high end shipment into the fourth quarter of 2012. However, Sabic claims returns in the mid $560s/mt FOB for Q4 shipment in line with netbacks against India contract business at $580/mt CFR benchmark to the $550s/mt FOB for Q1 2013 deliveries against a total cost-package of around $45/mt. The US domestic market remains far above the rest of the globe in terms of demand and price, essentially eliminating US tons from the export market for the near term. US producer Mosaic is as much as 30 days behind in some US deliveries, according to customer reports to Fertilizer Week. As a result DAP barge values now equate to at least $606/mt FOB US Gulf, not including any margin or transfer costs. The result has been to attract more import cargos, although that trade continues to be dominated by higher analysis MAP. India's Q4 phosphoric acid contract price has settled at $855/mt P2O5 CFR, down $30/mt on the Q3 price. The contracts cover around 80- 90,000 mt/month P2O5 ex-Morocco for Q4 deliveries with OCP's joint venture partners. The new price equates to a cash cost price for indigenous DAP in the mid $590s/mt CFR against ammonia pricing at over $700/mt CFR, which is above the prevailing price for imported DAP at $580/mt CFR.

OCP agreed to cut prices to India in te beggining of 2012)

LONDON (ICIS)--Moroccan fertilizer producer Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) has agreed to cut first-quarter phosphoric acid prices for Indian buyers, the company said on Friday. Protracted talks, which had entered their seventh week due to price disputes, were concluded with an agreement to slice fourth-quarter prices for India by $120/tonne (€91.20/tonne). 17 February 2012 12:04 OCP and its Indian joint venture partners Paradeep Phosphates Limited (PPL), Zuari, and Tata Chemicals Limited (TCL) have settled first-quarter 2012 contracts at $960/tonne CFR (cost and freight), which nets back to around $880/tonne FOB (free on board). Due to the delay in concluding the contracts, OCP will ship a smaller volume than usual, up to a maximum of 50,000 tonnes of phosphoric acid by the end of March. Declining international prices for finished product diammonium phosphate (DAP) had led to expectations that contract prices for raw materials phosphate rock and phosphoric acid would be lowered. OCP had already agreed to cut first quarter phosphoric acid prices by $50/tonne from fourth quarter settlements to $950–1,085/tonne FOB for European buyers at the end of January. PPL, Zuari and TCL had initially targeted $930/tonne CFR, citing low domestic demand for DAP and the $80–100/tonne plunge in the benchmark US Gulf export price for DAP in late December. Although OCP declined to comment on the negotiations, it is understood the supplier was targeting $1,000/tonne CFR. OCP usually leads supplier-buyer contract negotiations for raw materials, but the stalled talks resulted in smaller players such as South African phosphoric acid producer Foskor concluding at $960/tonne CFR with Indian joint venture partner Coromandel earlier this month. The reduced phosphoric acid price is likely to place pressure on US phosphate fertilizer producer PhosChem to similarly drop the price of DAP sold to India under a three-year contract to supply 6m tonnes. The current DAP contract price of $677/tonne CFR is due to be renegotiated during annual talks next month. ($1 = €0.76) For more information on phosphates and other fertilizers, please visit icis pricing fertilizers Follow Karen Thomas on Twitter By: Karen Thomas

Phosphoric Acid Economics

Imagine an ideal place near an ideal sea port from where we could import phosphate rock and sulfur. To produce Phosphoric Acid (and its predecessor, Sulfuric Acid) at a rate of 200.000 tonnes of P2O5 a year, the fixed capital is supposed to be US$ 300 million in 2013.
The operating costs are: Phosphate Rock (at US$ 150 per tonne and 3 tonnes per tonne of P2O5), Sulfur (at US$ 80 per tonne and 1 tonne per tonne of P2O5), power, water, labor (may be 50 very skkilled personnel) and the disposal of gypsum.
Selling price is over US$ 1.000 per tonne of P2O5, but do the right calculations and you will see we are not making a lot of profity...

Brazilian agricultural production in 2012

Brazilian agricultural production rose to R$ 305 billions in 2012 (US$1=R$2) up from R$ 242 billions in 2011. São Paulo lost its first position in that country to Mato Grosso, due to losses in oranges (R$ 10 billions against R$ 3 billions) and coffee.

Agrium, Redwater, Alberta, Canada